Ireland’s housing crisis could persist until 2040, according to new projections from the Department of Finance, which warn that the shortage of homes will continue for at least another 15 years unless major changes are made to planning, construction and policy.
In its latest long-term economic analysis, Future Forty: A Fiscal and Economic Outlook to 2065, the department outlines a “no change” scenario in which demand for housing outpaces supply well into the 2030s. The report suggests that “pent-up demand” for homes may not be “fully eliminated until at least 2040,” even as building activity rises in the coming decade.
The study estimates that Ireland will need to deliver around 60,000 new homes every year by 2030 to close the gap — roughly double the current rate of completions. It also projects that the construction sector would require an additional 50,000 skilled workers to sustain that level of output, an expansion that economists describe as “formidable.”
Speaking in response to the findings, Housing Minister James Browne said he does not accept the report’s baseline scenario. “I aim to end the housing crisis in my term and I believe that can be done,” he said. “I’m certainly not accepting a no-change model. We are driving change.”
In the capital, the average monthly rent in Dublin reached €2,481 in the final quarter of 2024 — an increase of 4% year-on-year and about 29% higher than levels when the pandemic began. Outside Dublin, the nationwide average monthly rent stood at €1,956, up about 43% on pre-COVID levels. In the first quarter of 2025 the national average open-market rent passed €2,000, reaching €2,053, representing a 48% jump since early 2020.
The Department of Finance warns that the consequences go beyond housing affordability. Persistent shortages, it says, risk constraining economic growth, limiting workforce mobility, and exacerbating inequality. The report points to potential “structural impacts” on living standards if the housing market remains unbalanced for another decade.
For many in Ireland, the message is sobering. Even under optimistic assumptions, the data suggests that the pressures facing first-time buyers and renters are unlikely to ease quickly. With average rents already at record highs and home prices continuing to rise faster than incomes, the idea that the crisis could extend until 2040 will strike a nerve with younger generations and families struggling to secure stable housing.
While the Government’s Housing for All strategy remains the centrepiece of its response, the new forecast underscores the scale of the challenge. It suggests that even with current policies, Ireland could be facing a generation-long housing shortage, unless dramatic improvements are made to construction productivity, infrastructure investment and regional planning.
As policymakers look ahead to the next decade, the tension between short-term political goals and long-term demographic realities is becoming clear. For now, the Department of Finance’s warning adds fresh urgency to a debate that has dominated Irish life for years — and shows no sign of ending anytime soon.
