The United Nations has issued an urgent climate warning as a developing El Niño event threatens to push global temperatures even higher and increase the risk of extreme weather around the world.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean are driving the development of a significant El Niño event, with forecasters warning it is likely to intensify in the months ahead.
According to the WMO, there is an 80% chance that above-average temperatures will be recorded across most of the globe between June and August, while there is a 90% likelihood that El Niño conditions will persist and strengthen through November and beyond.
Responding to the latest forecasts, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the world must treat the findings as an urgent warning.
"The message from the World Meteorological Organization is an urgent climate warning," he said, adding that El Niño conditions will "pour fuel on the fire of a warming world."
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He warned that the impacts would travel farther, hit harder and cross borders with increasing speed.
El Niño is one of the most powerful naturally occurring climate patterns on Earth. It occurs when ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become significantly warmer than normal. The phenomenon typically develops every two to seven years and can last between nine and 12 months.
While scientists say there is no evidence that climate change is increasing the frequency or strength of El Niño events, the additional warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions can amplify their effects, leading to more severe heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall.
Andrea Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, said countries should prepare for a potentially strong event.
"We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean," she said.
Meteorologists believe 2027 could become the hottest year ever recorded as the warming influence of El Niño combines with long-term climate change trends. The previous El Niño event, which spanned 2023 and 2024, was among the five strongest on record and contributed to record-breaking global temperatures.
The impacts of El Niño vary around the world. It typically brings increased rainfall to parts of South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia, while creating drier conditions across Australia, Indonesia, Central America, the Caribbean and parts of southern Asia.
For Ireland, the outlook is somewhat mixed.
WMO projections suggest rainfall levels could be lower than normal as El Niño develops, while temperatures are expected to remain above average. However, Ireland is not expected to experience the most severe warming impacts associated with the event.
Street thermometer in Bilbao displays 50C in record-breaking heatwave. Shutterstock
The warning comes as much of Europe experiences increasingly intense heat.
In recent weeks, parts of Spain and Portugal approached 40C, while the UK recorded its hottest May day on record with temperatures reaching 34.8C in London.
Authorities in France also reported deaths linked to the heatwave and issued multiple weather alerts as extreme temperatures swept across the country.
Climate scientists say these events are consistent with a broader warming trend.
Data from the World Meteorological Organization and the European climate service Copernicus show that Europe has warmed approximately twice as fast as the global average since the 1980s, making heatwaves more frequent and more intense.
The latest warning also comes as Ireland faces growing pressure over its own climate commitments.
New projections from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) indicate that Ireland is on track to significantly miss its legally binding emissions targets for 2030. Even if all proposed climate measures are fully implemented, emissions are projected to fall by only 25% under Ireland's Climate Act target and 23% under the relevant EU target, well short of the reductions required.
The EPA warned that stronger action will be needed across all sectors if Ireland is to meet its climate obligations and avoid potentially significant financial penalties.
With global temperatures continuing to rise and another major El Niño event taking shape, climate experts say governments, businesses and communities must prepare for a future in which extreme weather becomes increasingly common.
